In July 2023, this group produced 633,000 tons of crude steel, up 22% compared to June. Sales volume of construction steel, hot rolled coil (HRC) and billet reached 555,000 tons, up 3% compared to June. with the previous month. In which, Hoa Phat’s HRC recorded 291,000 tons, the highest since the beginning of the year and up 16% compared to June 2023.
The high output of hot rolled coil in the last month was thanks to the positive signal of HRC demand in the market, especially in the export market. The Group has exported HRC steel to many countries in Europe and Asia.
With construction steel products, Hoa Phat sold 261,000 tons, down 9% compared to June, mainly due to weak demand and unfavorable weather conditions for construction activities.
SSI Research also informed in the report that Hoa Phat has pre-signed HRC export orders until September, so SSI believes that this can help the company’s HRC consumption remain stable in the third quarter of this year. 2023 at an average of 250,000 tons/month.
However, compared to previous months, import demand from these markets may decelerate due to slowing consumption and cheap imports from Asia. This can be reflected in the fact that steel prices in these markets are down more than 20% from their peak in April 2023. The difference between HRC prices in the US and European markets compared to Vietnam in absolute value has also narrowed significantly by nearly 60%, from 350-700 USD/ton at the end of April to 180-700 USD/ton at the end of April, respectively. 400 USD/ton at the end of June.
In addition, competition from Chinese steelmakers should also be closely watched. In the first half of 2023, China’s finished steel exports increased by 31 year-on-year to 43.6 million tons. This was due to a slowdown in domestic demand and an increase in China’s manufacturing output in the recent quarter. SSI Research also noted that the price of construction steel in China is about 7-8% lower than the equivalent steel product in Vietnam, which can partly be attributed to cheap imported coal from Russia, making exports less expensive. Vietnam’s steel billet exports to China are almost zero in 2023.
SSI Research in the second half of 2023, steel prices are likely to be supported by production cuts in some Chinese provinces in the second half of the year. In addition, there are measures taken by the Chinese government to support the general economy and the market
real estate in particular after the economy recovered more slowly than expected in the first half of 2023.
According to a recent update by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the value of real estate development investment in China fell by 7.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, higher than the 7.2 percent decline. % in the first 5 months of 2023. Therefore, the Chinese government recently pledged to strengthen policy support for the economy and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, helping steel prices in China slightly recovered around 4-5% in the past 2 months and this will still be a supportive factor in the coming quarters.
However, no detailed measures have been disclosed yet and it may take more time for policies to significantly impact actual demand. Vietnam’s average steel price may move in line with China’s price trend, but it is forecasted to be in a lower amplitude, because Vietnam’s average steel price is still 6-8% higher than steel products. Chinese equivalent as mentioned above. Therefore, SSI Research also believes that Vietnam’s steel price may still fluctuate, but with a range of only about 50-70 USD/ton in the coming months.
T&G International Joint Stock Company
Address: 352 Hue Street, Le Dai Hanh Ward, Hai Ba Trung District, Hanoi
Hotline: 02473010868
Email: hrm@tginterjsc.com
Website: http://tgimportexport.com