Real estate is slowing down, liquidity in the market declines before some control moves by State management agencies. According to experts, this situation will continue in the near future.

Talking to the writer, Mr. Pham Duc Toan, founder and general director of EZ Property, said that controlling capital flow into real estate is no different from blocking the blood vessels of businesses. When reducing the proportion of real estate loans, tightening lenders and increasing interest rates all directly affect real estate liquidity.

This person said that in the past time, although the State Bank (SBV) did not tighten credit, the loan limit for real estate of banks has also been exhausted. Nowadays, it is very difficult to get a loan. Because in 2021, the amount of disbursement for real estate is very large, so in the first 6 months of the year, banks have disbursed to the limit of 2022.

Mr. Toan assessed that, at present, the biggest pressure is on investors to use borrowed capital, while bond issuance is also under tight control. Financial resources by themselves and mobilized from customers are not enough. Therefore, the project could not be implemented, leading to a decrease in supply. Besides, many homebuyers are currently facing difficulties because banks no longer have room, which causes demand in the market to decline. Meanwhile, house prices have increased very high in the recent period.

“Many people now tend to hold cash to wait for a new cycle when the market drops a beat before they buy money. And today’s surfing investors are also facing difficulties because there is no liquidity. The real estate market in the past two months has clearly shown a decline and will become more and more obvious every day. However, the market will not go to the point of freezing, “said General Director of EZ Property.

According to his forecast, if the State Bank does not loosen the credit room for real estate, the market will still face difficulties from now until the end of the year. Cash flow into real estate will shrink. In addition, the stock market is currently only around 1,200 points and the liquidity is very low, so the capital flow from this market to real estate is also absent, making real estate even more difficult.

The size of the real estate market will decrease due to less supply and transaction volume, but the market will not “die”, Mr. Toan said. Because the participants in the real estate market are still controlling their cash flow, which means they still have the financial security to survive this period. Besides, bad debt in real estate is not too big right now. Therefore, the market may not “bloom” but also will not die.

EZ Property leaders assessed that almost all segments in the real estate market are currently facing difficulties. Many housing projects are facing legal problems that have not been resolved. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have almost no new projects implemented, causing a sharp drop in supply. In this context, the affordable, mid-range housing segment will breathe the most.

As for apartments, now many people see the potential but cannot exploit it because of the mechanism. However, from now until the end of the year, good projects will still attract investors and people with real housing needs. As for the areas where the price has been blown up too high recently, the liquidity will be very difficult, many people who want to withdraw will not be able to.

“I think that real estate prices will probably decrease in the near future. Investors who have been holding stocks at the top and facing financial pressure will tend to reduce prices or sell at a loss. Real estate prices will tend to go down, but the margin of decline is not much because the supply is limited,” Mr. Toan forecast.

According to economist Dinh The Hien, the current real estate market is almost the same as in 2012. After the hot growth period in the 2009-2010 period, the State Bank reduced the speed and proportion of the surplus. Loans to non-manufacturing sectors, including real estate, immediately faced difficulties in the market. The only difference is that real estate has not seen a sharp decline in prices like 2012.

“The market is currently frozen, starting to enter the freezing phase. That is, the liquidity dropped very sharply, buyers will not dare to buy and sellers are hesitant, do not want to reduce the price much. However, the frozen market is sometimes more dangerous than a bubble because at that time, those holding land cannot sell, etc.

In the coming time, it is unlikely that the Government will allow credit growth but will continue to maintain the standard credit management and capital inflows into real estate. Therefore, this expert predicts, businesses that have used excessive capital and real estate speculators with excessive loans will face difficulties. This situation has just begun and the freeze will continue for many more months.

In addition, Mr. Hien also forecast that land prices in the coming time may decrease, but only when buyers and sellers negotiate directly with each other.

T&G Import-Export Joint Stock Company

Address: 352 Hue Street, Le Dai Hanh Ward, Hai Ba Trung District, Hanoi

Hotline: 02473010868

Email: