Experts in the logistics industry predict that the turmoil in the global shipping market will not end at the end of 2022, but may last into 2023.
The traffic jam is long until 2023
According to Global Times, experts in the logistics industry predict that the disturbance in the global shipping market may not end by the end of 2022, and at the same time, the situation of port congestion in the US will continue, even becomes more severe.
Han Jun, an analyst from investment bank China Securities, said if the US port congestion problem is not resolved in the two months after the 2022 Lunar New Year, or in the peak export season in the second half, years, the supply chain crisis could get worse.
Besides, Mr. Han predicted, the probability for the global shipping chain to return to the level of 2019 (before the pandemic appeared) is extremely low.
Zhong Zhechao, founder of One Shipping, said that the global supply chain will continue to “tighten like a string” in 2022, even extending into 2023.
In 2021, the global shipping industry continues to suffer from major incidents, starting with the Suez Canal congested in March.
Next are two major ports, Shenzhen and Ningbo (China) which were partially closed due to local COVID-19 outbreaks in May and August.
Normally, it only takes about 10 days from Ningbo port to the US West Coast, but with the current deadlocked logistics situation, unloading a ship can also take up to 10 days.
Another big shock began in July, when ports in the US were stuck at the peak of import and export of goods.
The damage is as long as ever
Consumers around the globe are already starting to feel the direct effects of shipping congestion as the cost of freight rises sharply.
Mr. Zhang Shuang, a Chinese trader, said that if buyers do not share these costs, exporting companies will suffer heavy economic losses and only have to cancel orders, because the more they export, the more they export. the more they lose.
Talking to Global Times, Mr. Yang, CEO of a shipping company, said that despite the complicated development of the epidemic and the weakening of transport capacity, the two-way trade between China and the US is still increasing, putting pressure on Container management system is inherently too stressful.
“For the past year, I had to rush to order the container, otherwise the inventory in the warehouse would not be able to be packed and shipped out,” Mr. Yang said.
In addition, the disturbance in global shipping also directly affects production. Businesses said that world fertilizer prices will increase sharply in 2021, especially nitrogen fertilizers.
One of the main reasons is that the Ever Given ship got stuck in the Suez Canal in March, extending the transit time of natural gas, a raw material for global nitrogen fertilizer production while countries are in short supply of raw materials. manufacture. This pushes fertilizer prices up.
COVID-19 and storms have also severely affected the overseas cargo capacity of China’s two most important ports, Shenzhen and Ningbo.
Also because of the pandemic, the US is increasingly dependent on Chinese goods, putting a strain on the shipping chain from China to the US, especially for household goods.
Data from China Customs shows that in the first 11 months of this year, China’s exports to the US increased by 28%, exceeding the total import and export value of 2020.
In November alone, the US surpassed ASEAN and the European Union to become the largest importer of Chinese goods.
The large amount of goods from China to the US poses problems for operators and logistics companies, causing congestion at seaports while supermarkets still lack essential items.
Transporting goods from ports to supermarkets and domestic warehouses also becomes a big challenge.
To overcome this situation, the US government requires major ports to extend their operating hours to 24 hours a day.
T&G International Joint Stock Company
Address: 352 Hue Street, Le Dai Hanh Ward, Hai Ba Trung District, Hanoi
Hotline: 0345786803
Email: hrm@tginterjsc.com
Website: http://tginternationaljsc.com
