Recently, European leaders announced plans to gradually phase out coal imports from Russia in a move to impose new sanctions on this country.

On April 5, the European Commission (EC) proposed a phased ban on Russian coal imports totaling 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) a year, as part of the 5th round of sanctions against Russia. Other proposals would target the technology sector and imports of Russian manufactured goods, valued at 10 billion euros ($10.9 billion).

Previously, Europe had imposed sanctions since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military campaign in Ukraine in late February, but still “evaded” the country’s energy sector. However, when the military situation became more tense, the EU decided to take a tougher action.

It is expected that new details on the new round of sanctions, including the timing of the implementation of the ban on coal imports, will be announced today, when EU ambassadors join the meeting to negotiate. These measures still need the approval of all 27 member states.

The ban on coal imports will affect some countries on the continent, but it is still one of the easiest energy sources to “withdraw” when much of the world is doing this. But, a more complicated question is what happens next?

How much coal does Europe import from Russia?

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia is the third largest coal exporter in the world by 2020, after Australia and Indonesia, of which Europe is the largest customer. IEA data shows that the continent received 57 million tonnes of coal from Russia that year, compared with 31 million tonnes from China. This amounted to half of Europe’s coal production that year, according to Eurostat.

However, the EU has gradually reduced the use of the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel. According to an analysis by the energy consultancy Ember, the amount of electricity produced from coal has been steadily decreasing across the bloc in recent years, falling by 29% between 2017 and 2019.

Furthermore, despite a brief surge in coal use last year due to record gas prices, the IEA predicts that European coal demand will continue to decline. Total imports are expected to decline by 6% by 2024, even before Russia launches a military campaign in Ukraine.

Other countries will likely buy Russian coal. The IEA expects India’s coal imports to grow by 4% in 2024 and more than 6% in Southeast Asia. The agency said in a report released in December that Russia has benefited from a surge in exports to China, after it stopped importing coal from Australia.

Will coal prices come out after the EU bans?

However, the shortage of supply may become a “headache” for countries that are still using coal to generate electricity, including Poland and Germany. According to the IEA, a drop in supply and a rebound in demand in China helped push global coal prices to an all-time high in October 2021.