In the investment outlook report of the global oil and gas industry just released, international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings said that Saudi Arabia (Saudi Arabia) will lead the increase in oil and gas output. globally between now and 2030.
The Fitch report says Saudi Arabia will increase crude oil, condensate and natural gas production by 2.24 million bpd between 2021 and 2030.
Followed by Iran with an increase of 2.17 million bpd, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) 1.61 million bpd, Libya (Libi) with 1.04 million bpd and Kuwait ( Kuwait) with 966,000 bpd. Iraq (Iraq) is expected to post an increase of 691,000 bpd, while Qatar (Cata) is up 127,000 bpd.
Both Bahrain (Barah) and Oman (Oman) will see production declines.
Fitch’s analysis attributes much of the increase in production in Libya, Iran and Iraq to the recovery of barrels temporarily “frozen or cut” due to domestic political-security instability (for with Libya) or international sanctions (Iran), or because of an agreement to cut production by producers inside and outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (for Iraq).
“Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait were the only producers that recorded a significant increase in production,” the Fitch report states.
According to Fitch, the collapse of the world oil market last year caused investment in the global oil and gas industry to drop 25.9 percent to $423 billion. Industry capital spending will not return to 2019 levels until 2025. Total global oil and gas investment in 2021 will grow 12.8% to $477 billion, before reaching $505 billion. in 2022.
Fitch senior oil and gas analyst Emma Richards said national oil companies in the Middle East are likely to do very well in today’s market conditions.
With the advantage of a resource base, these businesses can compete on both cost and carbon intensity (emission intensity) and they are not subject to the same regulatory pressures as companies in Europe and North America. America.
The Fitch report also addresses the energy transition, with a focus on the emerging hydrogen production industry.
While investments in the low-carbon segment of national oil companies in the Middle East may represent a negligible fraction of capital expenditures in the coming years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE stand a chance of gaining a leading edge. on the clean ammonia and hydrogen markets.
Saudi Arabia currently ranks eighth and the UAE is seventh on Fitch’s green hydrogen index. This index assesses the suitability of a given market for the development of the green hydrogen industry.
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