Import and export turnover by month in the first 8 months of the year. (Graphic:  Thai Binh).

Pillars from the group of high-tech products

According to the General Department of Customs, in August, due to the heavy impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, import and export goods in 19 southern provinces and cities only reached 18.5 billion USD, down 23% (equivalent to 5.6 million USD). billion USD) compared to July. In which, exports reached 8.2 billion USD, down 28% (equivalent to 3.2 billion USD) and imports reached 10.3 billion USD, down 19% (corresponding to a decrease of USD 3.2 billion) 2.4 billion USD).

If compared with June 2021 (the month that has not yet implemented social distancing), import and export at units also decreased sharply by 30%. In which, exports decreased by 41% and imports decreased by 18%. In particular, 3 key units and also the most complicated epidemic areas all decreased deeply.

Specifically, Ho Chi Minh City Customs Department decreased by 39.3% in export and 15% in import; Dong Nai Customs Department decreased by 40.4% in export and 16.3% in import; Binh Duong Customs Department decreased 48% in export and 31% in import.

By the end of August, import and export turnover between Vietnam and all five continents maintained high growth.

In which, trade with Asia reached US$277.32 billion, up 28.6% over the same period in 2020, continuing to account for the highest proportion (64.5%) of the country’s total import-export turnover. country.

Import and export between Vietnam and other continents are: the Americas reached 90.1 billion USD, up 29.7%; Europe reached 47.52 billion USD, up 15.1%; Oceania reached 9.2 billion USD, up 46% and Africa reached 5.55 billion USD, up 24.8%.

Industries with many factories in the South such as wood and wood products; Footwear; textiles… were heavily affected in August. Specifically, the export turnover of wood and products in August decreased by 39.1% compared to July 2021; footwear down 40.2%; textile and garment decreased by 14.9%.

Meanwhile, in the northern key localities such as Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Hai Phong, Hai Duong… with the epidemic situation being effectively controlled, import and export activities have had an impressive recovery, helping the situation The overall picture of the country has improved significantly.

Specifically, in the last 15 days of August, the country’s import-export turnover reached 30.49 billion USD (equivalent to more than 2 billion USD/day), a sharp increase of 26.5% (equivalent to an increase of 6.39 billion USD) compared to the previous 15 days. results in the first half of August 2021.

In fact, import-export turnover in the northern key provinces and cities can “carry” the decline in the southern localities, because Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Bac Giang or Hai Phong… are where mainly the production factories of the largest groups of import and export goods today are related to electronic and high-tech goods such as phones and components; computers, electronic products and components.

On the other hand, factories and industrial parks in the North were mostly newly built, better meeting the “3-on-the-spot” working conditions and epidemic prevention and control requirements, so the maintenance of production production is more efficient than in the southern provinces and cities.

Typically, at the Bac Ninh Customs Department (customs management in three provinces: Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Bac Giang) there was a strong recovery after the epidemic was under control. Right in July, exports reached $7.2 billion, up 58% and imports reached $5.5 billion, up 19% compared to June 2021. In August, exports reached $ 8.8 billion, imports reached $ 6.7 billion, together increasing by more than 22% compared to the previous month.

Expectations for a breakthrough in the fourth quarter

Thanks to the growth momentum in the last 15 days of the month, for the whole of August, import-export turnover reached 54.57 billion USD, down only 4.2% compared to the previous month. In which, exports reached 27.23 billion USD, down 2.3% compared to the previous month (equivalent to 636 million USD); imports reached USD 27.34 billion, down 6.1% (equivalent to USD 1.77 billion).

Accumulated to the end of August, the country’s import and export scale reached US$429.68 billion, up 27.5% over the same period last year, equivalent to an increase of US$92.62 billion. In which, exports reached $213.52 billion, up 21.8% and imports reached $216.15 billion, up 33.7%.

Thus, on average, in the first 8 months of the year, each month’s import-export turnover reached nearly 54 billion USD. It can be seen that, although the COVID-19 epidemic is still complicated, the turnover achieved in August is still higher than the average in the first months of the year.

Notably, although some groups were greatly affected in August, in the first 8 months of the year, 6 key export commodity groups (turnover of 10 billion USD or more) had impressive growth.

Specifically, phones and components reached 35.33 billion USD, up 11.9% over the same period in 2020; computers, electronic products and components reached 31.8 billion USD, up 14.8%; machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached USD 23.15 billion, up sharply by 50.6%; textile and garment reached 21.11 billion USD, up 9.4%; footwear of all kinds reached 12.63 billion USD, up 16.1%; wood and wood products reached 10.39 billion USD in this group, up 41.4%.

Another positive signal is that the trade balance is improving in August when the whole country had a trade deficit of only USD 109 million, while in July 2021 there was a trade deficit of USD 1.25 billion. By the end of August, the country had a trade deficit of 2.63 billion USD.

With the epidemic situation being gradually controlled in many localities, the distance measures were eased from mid-September, along with the great efforts of the business community and workers, it is likely , import and export activities in the fourth quarter of 2021 will have a significant increase.

Because in addition to the controlled disease factor, the fourth quarter is also the time when there is a big shopping period of the year, such as Christmas and New Year, so it is often the time to achieve the largest export turnover in the whole year.

If maintaining the average level of 54 billion USD/month as in the past 8 months, in 2021, the scale of import and export turnover of Vietnam will reach nearly 650 billion USD.

T&G International Joint Stock Company

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