Below is the analysis of market movements of a number of raw materials (Agricultural Products, Industrial Materials, Metals, Energy) globally in the trading session on January 7, 2022.
Corn price will hardly correct deeply to the price area of ​​592, the scenario of going sideways above 600 is still dominant
The strong increase in corn price in the second half of the session last night thanks to the positive movement of crude oil price showed signs of slowing down this morning at the price area of ​​605 cents. Wheat prices continued to weaken sharply, causing corn prices to still be pulled back to the important psychological support of 600 cents.
The sideways trend around this mark is still maintained with a range of about 10 cents around, and it will be difficult to break-out before the Supply – Demand report is released next Wednesday.
In anticipation of the report, analysts expect the USDA to reduce its forecast for U.S. corn inventories for MY21/22 to 1.47 billion bushels, 21 million bushels less than it reported in December. At an export pace of zero. positive progress in December, this decrease is likely to come from the increase in corn demand for ethanol production. And with the current very strong crude oil price, the WTI oil price has surpassed the 80 USD mark and is the highest level in the past 2 months, the ethanol production will remain around the 1.05 million bpd mark as shown. is currently possible.

General Commodity Exchange of Vietnam (MXV)

Independence flexible

Absence of news on supply and demand, coffee prices will follow technical signals and macro news
Ending the session yesterday, Arabica price continued to move sideways at 231.7 cents/lb, while Robusta price fell for the fourth consecutive session to 2307 USD/ton. The price difference between the two Departments is still at 55% discount for Robusta price.
The fact that Arabica price is moving sideways is the clearest evidence that the market lacks basic news that can support the price. On the contrary, this is the first correction for the Robusta market in more than a month where prices hold at 10-year highs. Notably, among industrial raw materials, the Robusta market is the only market that can do this. Besides the selling force from investors’ profit-taking psychology, Robusta prices are also under pressure when the harvest situation in Vietnam is quite favorable.
In addition, shipping rates in the world are also decreasing, creating good conditions for Vietnamese enterprises in the upcoming peak export months. The FRX (Freigh Rate Index), one of the measures of ocean freight rates globally, has been falling recently. From mid-December until now, shipping rates have gradually decreased to $9,100 per container. However, this price is still 2.5 times higher than last year.

General Commodity Exchange of Vietnam (MXV)

Tien Pham

Positive Non-Farm Payrolls data is likely to keep the copper market closed in the red
Ending the session yesterday, copper price fell 1.3% to 4.35 USD/lb. Selling continued to dominate the market because of the negative outlook of China, which consumes more than 50% of copper output per year. Local governments in China have begun drawing up their economic plans for 2022.
Beijing city and Henan province aim to expand their economies by “above 5%” and “7%”, respectively. This compares to pre-pandemic growth rates of 6.1% and 7% for the two regions in 2019. China typically sets its annual GDP target in March when the National People’s Congress meets.
Economists expect leaders to set economic growth to 5% for this year, however, this is a significant drop from the pre-pandemic growth rate of nearly 7% and reflects expectations. that the government will persist in its efforts to reduce dependence on real estate even as costs grow more slowly.

General Commodity Exchange of Vietnam (MXV)

Tien Pham

Oil prices are likely to maintain upward momentum when the supply issue cannot be resolved
Oil prices continued to rise yesterday with the prospect of tight supply. At the end of the session, WTI price increased 2.07% to 79.46 USD/barrel while Brent price increased 1.47% to 81.99 USD/barrel.
If oil prices recovered in late December thanks to continued increase in consumption demand while the Omicron variant continued to thrive, the current rally will only really begin when the world crude oil supply is continuously interrupted. . Even in the event that the instability in Libya and Kazakhstan is resolved, the problem of supply imbalance will be difficult to solve.
The reason is that currently even the world’s main oil producers, OPEC members, are having difficulty increasing production. According to Reuters estimates, the 11 OPEC members participating in the production cut agreement in December only increased 70,000 to 90,000 bpd.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia alone has been granted a quota to increase production by 100,000 bpd for a month. Meanwhile, the ally with the largest capacity to increase production, Russia, is also said to be unchanged in December. The major ally, Kazakhstan, is in danger.