Is USDA’s assessment in the Supply – Demand report too optimistic?
Opening the trading session on January 13, corn prices continued to weaken yesterday. This is also the first trading session after the US Department of Agriculture published the January Supply – Demand report in the quarterly Grain Inventory report, so the market will have more time to react to the information and data. . In these two reports, the actual figures are not too different from the market’s prediction. This explains the struggle and strong shaking of corn yesterday.
Although the price has weakened during the release of the report, it means that the short-term “bearish” effect is dominating. However, if you look closely at the data, the price trend in the medium and long term is in favor of the buyers. This is not strange after the Supply – Demand report because when the market has more time to verify information and dig into the data, the price may completely reverse the trend in the public session. dad.
General Commodity Exchange of Vietnam (MXV)
Independence flexible
USD slide and falling inventories across departments will support copper prices today
The copper market had a very sublime session when prices rose 3.3% to 4.56 USD/lb, and this was also the first time that prices broke out of the flat area since the energy crisis at the end of the month. past 10.
China’s inflation indicators are not negative compared to experts’ expectations, and will not restrain the increase of the central bank’s (PBOC) easing policies.
Besides, the number one goal of the Chinese government is still to stabilize the economy in the context of fighting the epidemic, so industrial production activities will not be able to be delayed. Therefore, the demand for copper in the short term will remain stable.
Besides, although the copper supply in the medium and long term is not tight, in the short term producers are facing many difficulties to access the supply. The operation of seaports in China such as Shanghai port (the largest in the world), Ningbo port (4th largest in the world) is increasingly stalled.
General Commodity Exchange of Vietnam (MXV)
Tien Pham
Vietnam’s positive export data may put pressure on Robusta prices
Ending the session yesterday, Arabica prices continued to increase by 1.6% to 240.9 cents/lb, while Robusta prices inched slightly to $2,282/ton. While Arabica prices have recovered by nearly 10% year-to-date, Robusta prices have shown only weak buying power and have largely benefited from positive investor sentiment. The price difference between the two departments increased to 57% discount for Robusta price.
In the context that Vietnam and Brazil’s December export figures are yet to be released, Arabica prices are receiving more support because of abundant news sources in the market. Qualified inventories on ICE DEPARTMENT plummeted to 1.43 million bags. Notably, within just one week, this stock level dropped by 100,000 bags, and remains the lowest level in a year.
Besides, the weakening of the USD has greatly supported the uptrend of commodity prices, including the price of coffee. The USD/BRL exchange rate fell to the lowest level within a month, restraining the selling power of traders, because Brazil is facing high inflation, so the selling force will be stronger if the USD appreciates.
General Commodity Exchange of Vietnam (MXV)
Tien Pham
Oil prices may soon enter a sideways phase after failing to break strong resistance
Oil prices continued to increase as the buyers focused on the “bullish” factors in the EIA report last night. At the end of the session, WTI price increased 1.75% to $82.64/barrel while Brent price increased 1.13% to $84.67/barrel.
With the recent buyers continuously focusing on the positive information of the report and ignoring the current risks such as the real market has shown signs of correction, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Iran simultaneously decreased. official selling price in February. Besides, demand for air travel also shows signs of weakness, with the number of passengers in the US decreasing by about 11% over the same period in 2020. The reason is due to the current market. are betting on the possibility that there will be an abnormal risk from the supply and thereby push the price up, even if only for a short time. With annual world fuel demand from the 2010s up to now being relatively stable and the rate of change relatively slow, supply uncertainties often generate a much larger response. Especially at the current stage, when OPEC+’s ability to regulate the market is being questioned, it is difficult to find an alternative source in the short term.
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