Vietnam has a trade surplus of iron and steel for the first time, surpassing 10 billion USD in exports: Any chance for steel stocks to return?

Vietnam has a trade surplus of iron and steel for the first time, surpassing 10 billion USD in exports: Any chance for steel stocks to return?

In the first half of November, steel exports reached 10.27 billion USD, 2.34 times higher than the same period last year. Thus, for the first time in history, Vietnam has become an iron and steel export surplus country, with the trade surplus as of November 15, 2021 reaching 240 million USD.

The latest preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs show that the total import and export value of Vietnam’s goods in the period of November 1, 2021 (from November 1 to November 15, 2021) reached 29, 59 billion USD, up 3% (equivalent to 867 million USD) compared to the results in the second half of October 2021.

The results achieved in the first half of November 2021 brought the total import-export value of the whole country by the end of November 15, 2021 to reach USD 569.03 billion, up 22.7%, corresponding to an increase of 105.32 billion USD in absolute terms over the same period in 2020. In which, Vietnam’s total export value reached 284.45 billion USD, up 17.7%, equivalent to 42.85 billion USD over the same period in 2020.

The most notable among commodity groups is iron and steel of all kinds, reaching 10.27 billion USD, an increase of 5.88 billion USD, corresponding to a strong increase of 134% over the same period in 2020. Thus for the first time, iron and steel export of Vietnam Vietnam has surpassed 10 billion USD. Meanwhile, imports of iron and steel of all kinds as of November 15, 2021 reached USD 10.03 billion, up USD 3.04 billion, equivalent to an increase of 43.5%… over the same period in 2020.

Thus, for the first time in history, Vietnam has become an iron and steel export surplus country, with the trade surplus as of November 15, 2021 reaching 240 million USD.

Việt Nam lần đầu tiên trong lịch sử xuất siêu sắt thép, xuất khẩu vượt 10 tỷ USD: Cơ hội nào cho cổ phiếu thép trở lại? - Ảnh 1.

In the first half of November, steel exports reached 10.27 billion USD, 2.34 times higher than the same period last year

Việt Nam lần đầu tiên trong lịch sử xuất siêu sắt thép, xuất khẩu vượt 10 tỷ USD: Cơ hội nào cho cổ phiếu thép trở lại? - Ảnh 2.

Iron and steel imports as of the first half of November reached 10.03 billion USD

Hoa Phat Group said that the total sales volume of pre-stressed steels (PC Bar and PC Strand) of Hoa Phat Metal Fabrication Company in the first 10 months of 2021 reached nearly 75,000 tons, of which exports alone contributed. 27% with more than 20,000 tons, double the same period. In addition to the United States and Taiwan, Hoa Phat’s prestressed steel has been exported to a number of new markets such as Canada, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Srilanka, Myanmar…

According to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), environmental policy, adjustment of export tax refund of the Chinese Government and recent price fluctuations of ore, Coke and scrap have affected the Southeast Asian steel market in which there is Vietnam. Construction steel exports in the first 10 months of 2021 increased by 1.5 times over the same period in 2020.

As forecasted by VSA at the end of the third quarter, the sales of construction steel in the fourth quarter is expected to be more promising. Considering the long steel consumption market in Vietnam, the demand is really big for civil works and infrastructure, especially public investment is huge. Just when the State well controlled the Covid-19 epidemic and allowed to widen the distance between regions, creating conditions for all economic sectors and industries to resume normal activities. The above factors made the construction industry perform well from the beginning of October 2021, steel demand increased again, factories increased their supply to the market.

On the other hand, the price of steel shares fell sharply in November, caused by the sharp drop in the price of iron ore and HRC in the world market, causing many investors to turn away from steel stocks. Hoa Phat Group’s HPG shares fell 17% from VND 58,000/share to the lowest of VND 48,000/share (down more than 17%), Hoa Sen Group’s HSG stock fell from VND 51,300/share to VND 37,500/share. down 27%), NKG stock dropped from 55,900 dong/share to the lowest 41,000 dong/share (-26.7%).

Việt Nam lần đầu tiên trong lịch sử xuất siêu sắt thép, xuất khẩu vượt 10 tỷ USD: Cơ hội nào cho cổ phiếu thép trở lại? - Ảnh 3.

In fact, according to data of the Steel Association (VSA), domestic construction steel prices in September, October and November have decreased compared to the peak in June, but still at a high level of 16,200 – 16,500 VND/kg. Currently, world iron ore prices tend to recover slightly from the bottom, expect steel stock prices to recover after dropping 20% from the top.

A positive factor is that in the construction steel segment, consumption volume has recovered when both export and domestic production have high growth. Sales volume in October reached about 1.2 million tons, up about 60% over the same period last year. Domestic consumption volume increased by 52% year-on-year to 928,700 tons in October, significantly higher than 636,000 tons in September.

Việt Nam lần đầu tiên trong lịch sử xuất siêu sắt thép, xuất khẩu vượt 10 tỷ USD: Cơ hội nào cho cổ phiếu thép trở lại? - Ảnh 4.
Việt Nam lần đầu tiên trong lịch sử xuất siêu sắt thép, xuất khẩu vượt 10 tỷ USD: Cơ hội nào cho cổ phiếu thép trở lại? - Ảnh 5.

HRC price plummeted impacting steel stock price

Việt Nam lần đầu tiên trong lịch sử xuất siêu sắt thép, xuất khẩu vượt 10 tỷ USD: Cơ hội nào cho cổ phiếu thép trở lại? - Ảnh 6.

World iron ore prices tend to recover slightly

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