Some organizations forecast many factors that could make Vietnam’s export growth this year less positive.
In the first 6 months of 2022, Vietnam’s export turnover of goods reached $186.03 billion (up 17.3% over the same period). Data from the General Department of Customs also shows that most of the traditional exports to major trading partners recorded strong growth compared to the same period in 2021.
According to experts of KB Securities Vietnam Joint Stock Company (KBSV), the driving force for Vietnam’s export growth in 2022 comes from signed FTAs that are gradually taking effect.
In addition, domestic exporters are gradually grasping competitive advantages when benefiting from preferential tariffs. At the same time, the recovery of the manufacturing sector when Vietnam normalizes the economy is also good news for the export outlook.
However. KBSV assesses that Vietnam’s export turnover in the last 6 months of the year will be under more pressure.
Experts here said that exports of FDI enterprises slowed down, due to a decrease in demand in major markets.
Specifically, 43% of Vietnam’s total import-export turnover, equivalent to 82.5 billion USD, came from machinery, equipment, and electronic components, which contributed mainly from FDI enterprises.
Meanwhile, large corporations like Samsung (accounting for 50% of the contribution to the export value of electronic products of this block) are reducing production, cutting the number of working days of workers from 5 days/week to 5 days. 3 days/week and encourage vacations for workers at the Vietnamese factory.
Another concern is that the price increase of Vietnam’s strong commodities such as agro-forestry-fishery, rice, steel, etc. may slow down or reverse in the near future when the supply is abundant.
Besides, according to KBSV, the appreciation of the VND against the currencies of trading partners (due to the peg in USD), makes Vietnam’s export goods less competitive.
Exports forecast to grow in the range of 13-18%
Sharing the same view, VNDirect Securities’ analyst group also said that Vietnam’s export growth may cool down due to slowing world demand and supply chain disruptions.
The tightening of global financial conditions coupled with supply chain disruptions will reduce the growth prospects of the global economy, leading to lower demand for Vietnamese exports in the second half of the year. 2022″, experts here said.
Most research institutions have downgraded their global economic growth forecasts by 0.5-0.9 percentage points for 2022 as a result of the economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and tightening global financial conditions. chop.
Russia-Ukraine tensions last longer than expected, strict social distancing in China fuels concerns about supply chain disruptions and slowing global economic growth.
“That affects the production and export activities of Vietnamese enterprises, as in the case of Samsung, which has had to adjust its output plan this year. Therefore, we forecast export growth to slow down in the second half of 2022 and reach 14% for the whole of 2022”, VNDirect forecast.
Before that, in 2021, Vietnam’s export turnover of goods reached 336.31 billion USD, up 19% compared to 2020.
In the latest report, BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company (BSC) mentioned the possibility of a recession in the US – the world’s largest economy.
BSC forecasts two export scenarios of Vietnam this year. In the negative scenario, if the US economy has a recession in 2022, our country’s exports may increase by 13.1% and imports by 12.6%. In the event that the US economy falls into recession in 2023, exports may increase by 18% and imports may increase by 17.3%.
Recently, experts of ACB Securities (ACBS) also pointed out a number of challenges for Vietnam’s trade activities in the second half of the year. Notably, ACBS raised concerns that when the US accounted for 50.5% of garment exports from Vietnam, rising inflation could cause the US demand for fashion and clothing items to decrease and could also lead to a decline in consumption. affect our exports.
Nguồn: ACBS.
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